Inflation Expectations Anchoring: New Insights from Micro Evidence of a Survey at High-frequency and of Distributions

This paper introduces wavelet analysis as a tool for investigating the anchoring of inflation expectations in the United States. We show that the anchoring of inflation expectations varies for different groups of economic agents and changes across time and frequency. For consumers, we confirm significant lead-lag relationships between short- and long-term inflation expectations at medium frequencies of one to four years of scale, thus suggesting that short-term inflation expectations had fed into long-term inflation expectations over the crisis period. However, no such relationship is found for professional forecasters. These results indicate that long-term inflation expectations were de-anchored during the crisis period for consumers but not for professional forecasters. Although consumers’ long-term inflation expectations have been re-anchored since 2014 at medium frequencies, we find signs of de-anchoring at higher time scales of approximately eight years.

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic shocks, represented by exchange rate volatility, on inflation expectations. Using data for the period 2006:04-2023:11 and the structural VAR method, the analysis examines the direct effect of macroeconomic shocks on short-term inflation expectations and the indirect effect on long-term inflation expectations. The results have shown that macroeconomic shocks have a direct effect on short-term inflation expectations and an indirect effect on long-term inflation expectations via short-term inflation expectations, which is referred to in the literature as the pass-through effect and shows that the uncertainty channel is active. Our results suggest that the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (CBRT), which wants to keep short- and long-term inflation expectations under control, should also take into account macroeconomic shocks, represented by exchange rate shocks, when determining policy instruments.

This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem’s Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of the 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into the ECB’s monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE was tasked with (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation expectations, with a focus on the degree of anchoring, and (ii) exploring the role that measures of expectations can play in forecasting inflation. While it is households’ and firms’ inflation expectations that ultimately matter in the expectations channel, data limitations have meant that in practice the focus of analysis has been on surveys of professional forecasters and on market-based indicators. Regarding the anchoring of inflation expectations, this paper considers a number of metrics: the level of inflation expectations, the responsiveness of longer-term inflation expectations to shorter-term developments, and the degree of uncertainty. Different metrics can provide conflicting signals about the scale and timing of potential unanchoring, which underscores the importance of considering all of them. Overall, however, these metrics suggest that in the period since the global financial and European debt crises, longer-term inflation expectations in the euro area have become less well anchored. Regarding the role measures of inflation expectations can play in forecasting inflation, this paper finds that they are indicative for future inflationary developments. When it comes to their predictive power, both market-based and survey-based measures are found to be more accurate than statistical benchmarks, but do not systematically outperform each other. Beyond their role as standalone forecasts, inflation expectations bring forecast gains when included in forecasting models and can also inform scenario and risk analysis in projection exercises performed using structural models. ...

We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations - in particular at a time of great financial and economic turmoil - by evaluating results from a survey conducted from July 2009 through July 2010. Participants in this survey answered a weekly questionnaire about their short-, medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Participants received common information sets with data relevant to euro area inflation. Our analysis of survey responses reveals several interesting results. First, our evidence is consistent with long-term expectations having remained well anchored to the ECB's definition of price stability, which acted as a focal point for long-term expectations. Second, the turmoil in euro area bond markets triggered by the Greek fiscal crisis influenced short- and medium-term inflation expectations but had only a very small impact on long-term expectations. By contrast, longterm expectations did not react to developments of the euro area wide fiscal burden. Third, participants changed their expectations fairly frequently. The longer the horizon, the less frequent but larger these changes were. Fourth, expectations exhibit a large degree of timevariant non-normality. Fifth, inflation expectations appear fairly homogenous across groups of agents at the shorter horizon but less so at the medium- and long-term horizons.

We provide new insights on the formation of inflation expectations - in particular at a time of great financial and economic turmoil - by evaluating results from a survey conducted from July 2009 through July 2010. Participants in this survey answered a weekly questionnaire about their short-, medium- and long-term inflation expectations. Participants received common information sets with data relevant to euro area inflation. Our analysis of survey responses reveals several interesting results. First, our evidence is consistent with long-term expectations having remained well anchored to the ECB's definition of price stability, which acted as a focal point for long-term expectations. Second, the turmoil in euro area bond markets triggered by the Greek fiscal crisis influenced short- and mediumterm inflation expectations but had only a very small impact on long-term expectations. By contrast, long-term expectations did not react to developments of the euro area wide fiscal burden. Third, participants changed their expectations fairly frequently. The longer the horizon, the less frequent but larger these changes were. Fourth, expectations exhibit a large degree of time-variant non-normality. Fifth, inflation expectations appear fairly homogenous across groups of agents at the shorter horizon but less so at the medium- and long-term horizons.

Long-term inflation expectations taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters are a major source of information for monetary policy. Unfortunately, they are published only on a quarterly basis. This paper investigates the daily information content of inflation-linked swap rates for the next survey outcome. Using a mixed data sampling approach, we find that professionals account for the daily dynamics of inflation swap rates when they submit their long-term inflation expectations. We propose a daily indicator of professionals’ inflation expectations that outperforms alternative indicators that ignore the high-frequency dynamics of inflation swap rates. To illustrate the usefulness of the new indicator, we provide new evidence on the (re-)anchoring of U.S. inflation expectations.

This paper investigates how the perceived risk that the euro area will experience deflation has evolved over time, and what this risk implies for the credibility of the ECB. We use a novel data set on market participants’ perceptions of short- to long-term deflation risk implied by year-on-year options on forward inflation swaps. We investigate whether long-term inflation expectations have become de-anchored, by studying whether long-term deflation risk has been affected by changes in oil prices and by short-term deflation risk. Our analysis suggests that the anchoring properties of euro area inflation expectations have weakened, albeit in a still subtle way.

Inflation expectations in the wake of the war in Ukraine

ABSTRACTThis study analyses and compares the determinants of inflation expectations among households and professional forecasters in India. To this end, we utilize quarterly survey data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), specifically the Inflation Expectations Survey of Households (IESH) and the Professional Forecasters’ Survey (SPF). The analysis employs a non‐recursive structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model to explore the relationships between variables. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis shed light on the response of inflation expectations to macroeconomic shocks. Our findings indicate that apart from conventional macroeconomic factors like realized inflation and monetary policy, exogenous factors such as oil prices significantly shape inflation expectations. Comparing IESH and SPF, we found out that household expectations are more sensitive to shocks related to food prices, reflecting the influence of food expenses on household decision‐making. Conversely, professional forecasters’ expectations are more influenced by core inflation. Finally, we observed that inflation expectations adjust more quickly than realized inflation in response to macroeconomic shocks, suggesting a leading role. This study is novel with the contribution to the existing literature as it provides a comparative analysis of determinants of inflation expectations between households and professional forecasters in India, while also considering inflation targeting as a significant factor.

Long-term inflation expectations taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters are a major source of information for monetary policy. Unfortunately, they are published only on a quarterly basis. This article investigates the daily information content of market-based measures, such as inflation-linked swaps and breakeven inflation rates, for the next survey outcome. Using a mixed data sampling approach, we find that professionals account for the daily dynamics of market-based measures when they submit their long-term inflation expectations. We propose a daily indicator of professionals’ inflation expectations that outperforms alternative indicators that ignore the high-frequency dynamics of market-based measures. To illustrate the usefulness of the new indicator, we provide new evidence on the (re-)anchoring of U.S. inflation expectations.

During the Great Crisis, most governments in industrial countries supported their domestic financial sector under stress and responded to strong declines in output growth with fiscal stimulus packages. Starting in 2010, attention focused on the sustainability of the resulting debt burdens. We conduct an empirical study to test whether in the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom, views on the sustainability of fiscal burdens have influenced markets’ assessment of central banks’ commitment to price stability. Using a daily measure of inflation expectations extracted from nominal and indexed-linked government bonds, or inflation swaps, we test whether these react to alternative measures of fiscal burdens. These include rescue package announcements, credit default swap (CDS) spreads and changes in either the outlook or the credit rating of governments. We find no evidence of a significant effect of market participants’ perceptions of fiscal burdens on long-term inflation expectations in the United States, the euro area and the United Kingdom. These results are broadly consistent with the view that long term inflation expectations have remained well anchored.

This paper presents a comprehensive examination of the determination and evolution of inflation expectations, with a focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The results suggest that long-term inflation expectations in EMDEs are not as well anchored as those in advanced economies, despite notable improvements over the past two decades. Indeed, in EMDEs, long-term inflation expectations are more sensitive to both domestic and global inflation shocks. However, EMDEs tend to be more successful in anchoring inflation expectations in the presence of an inflation targeting regime, high central bank transparency, strong trade integration, and a low level of public debt.

Aim: During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021, there was a significant increase in inflation and inflation expectations due to the government policies of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU), including the Euro Area (EA). With that being said, the evolving situation within these three po­litical-economic areas highlights the importance of understanding the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations, as perceived by both consumers and professional forecasters. The purpose of this article is to analyze the changes in these phenomena, using descriptive survey’ data analysis and a hybrid model of inflation expectations. Methods: The research methods refer to the descriptive survey data anal­ysis that provides evidence on the long-term courses of inflation in the US, the EU, and the EA, as well as the consumers’ and professional forecasters’ inflation expectations within the period 1999–2019. A hybrid model of inflation expectations has been used to estimate this data during the period of 2021. The study correlates and compares the findings of both types of research. Results: The results demonstrate that dur­ing the pandemic, the evidence supports the occurrence of periodic medium-high inflation in the studied economic areas. Inflation expectations in the US and the EU were periodically weakly anchored, although they were stabilized in the EA. Conclusions: The research, conducted by analyzing price trends and their expected trajectories over various timeframes, revealed consistent patterns. These patterns highlighted similarities in anticipated price changes before and during the pandemic.

Inflation literacy and inflation expectations: Evidence from Austrian household survey data

The impact of guidance, short-term dynamics and individual characteristics on firms’ long-term inflation expectations