Abstract
Inflation and Real Measure of Central Bank Independence in Tunisia
Highlights
Since the Revolution, Tunisia has suffered from a succession of inflationary waves which are increasingly significant and which affect the purchasing power of households, those with low incomes
We proved, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, that inflation in Tunisia is essentially explained by the variation of exchange rates, the turnover of the central bank governor, the credits granted to the private sector and the variation of interest rates which exerts a perverse effect
By studying the stationarity of the series used with the help of the Eviews 9.5 software, we note that the inflation rate, the Credit as a percentage of GDP and the money market rate (MMR) are stationary in first difference
Summary
Since the Revolution, Tunisia has suffered from a succession of inflationary waves which are increasingly significant and which affect the purchasing power of households, those with low incomes. The various governments have tried to limit this phenomenon by trying to regulate the behaviour of suppliers. The Central Bank has tried to curb inflation by increasing the key rate, but in vain; the latter continues to rise, which leads us to look for other factors that may affect the variation of prices in Tunisia. The determinants of inflation have been the subject of several works (Darrat, 1986; Deme and Fayissa, 1995; Khemiri and Ali, 2012) with the persistence of this phenomenon in Tunisia, we try to detect the determinants of inflation in our country. We verify the existence of a relationship between inflation, the independence of the central bank and imports, which are two phenomena that are experiencing a strong evolution
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