Inflacija - uzroci, izgledi i odgovori monetarnih politika, s posebnim osvrtom na Srbiju

Abstract

The paper elaborates on world inflation drivers and monetary policy responses in 2022, with a particular focus on Serbia, including factors underpinning global inflation in both short and long run. Reining in inflation was among the key challenges for economic policy makers across the world in 2022, and was particularly pivotal for monetary policy. Reflecting a mix of acute external shocks, in 2022 inflation turned out more persistent and stronger than expected initially, whilst in the case of Serbia it was largely dictated by global supply-side factors. As shown by NBS analyses, around 50% of the departure of actual from projected inflation in Serbia was due to a significant deviation of global prices of oil, inflation in Euro area, primary agricultural commodity prices and the agricultural season at home from the assumptions used in the projection model. While pronounced oscillations of imported inflation (expressed in dinars) in the earlier years (2010 and 2012) were largely determined by the dinar's volatility against the Euro (two-thirds almost), now, in an environment of preserved relative stability of the exchange rate, they are a consequence of the growth in Euro area consumer prices. Responding to mounting inflationary pressures, central banks embarked on monetary policy tightening. A more robust response came from those central banks whose economies faced inflationary pressures generated not only by supply-side factors, but also by domestic demand and higher labour costs. Though global inflation is expected to slow in the coming period, estimates prevail that it will not return to the exceptionally low pre-pandemic levels in the medium run.