Inferring Threat from Scientific Collections

Abstract

Exact formulas for the probability of extinction or change in the conservation status of species are described for data based on frequency of sighting. These formulas generalize an expression previously described for the probability of extinction from (binary) sighting data. The formulas will be used in contexts where sightings are recorded as frequencies, such as when observations are aggregated in time. We argue that computing the probability of extinction or change in conservation status will be most useful for setting conservation priorities and in screening large data sets contained in museum and herbarium collections and in biological resource inventories.