Inferring the Characteristics of an Arsonist from Crime Scene Actions: A Case Study in Offender Profiling

Abstract

The purpose of the present case study was to apply psychological models of offender behaviour in providing assistance to an ongoing police investigation of a series of arsons. After a general description of the series, the analysis of the crime scene and spatial behaviour of the offender were described followed by predictions concerning likely background characteristics and home location. The accuracy of these predictions was evaluated against information concerning the suspect in the case. The characteristics predicted, based on the findings of Canter and Fritzon (1998), were in good accordance with the actual characteristics of the suspect in the case. Also, it was possible to provide fairly good estimates of the home location of the suspect based on the crime locations. There was a difference between those predicted characteristics that were based strictly on the Canter and Fritzon model and the spatial predictions which were more accurate compared to predictions based on ‘common sense’.