Inferring patterns of wildlife trade through monitoring social media: Shifting dynamics of trade in wild-sourced African Grey parrots following major regulatory changes

Abstract

Monitoring wildlife trade on social media can help understand patterns of legal and illegal trade and provide insights into the underpinning processes. Such information can be critical for informing strategies to reduce trade and mitigate associated harms. Psittacus parrots (Psittacus erithacus and Psittacus timneh) have been among the most intensely traded parrot species on the Appendices of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), leading to extensive overexploitation and severe declines across West and Central Africa. In recent years, a multifaceted set of interventions have been implemented aimed at reducing trade both offline and online. Building on previous research into trade in wild-sourced Psittacus parrots on social media between 2014 and 2017 in a sample identified using traders known a priori to be major exporters Psittacus parrots, we surveyed posts by the same sample of users in the period 2018–2020, to create a retrospective longitudinal dataset of public online trade activity. Using this dataset, we explored temporal and spatial patterns of online trade activity and evaluated the potential role of interventions and other underlying factors in driving observed trends. After accounting for changes in page accessibility, we observed a decline of 94.6% in public posts indicating trade in wild-sourced Psittacus parrots between 2014 and 2020. There was no evident decline immediately following the listing of Psittacus parrots on CITES Appendix I at the start of 2017, which prohibited international trade in wild Psittacus parrots for commercial purposes. Rather, a sustained decline occurred from 2018 onwards, coinciding with additional CITES measures, enhanced efforts by law enforcement agencies, and the implementation of new policies by airlines and social media platforms. The decline was particularly pronounced in exporters, among whom posts featuring wild-sourced Psittacus parrots ceased altogether. However, posts do indicate ongoing trade activity in Iraq, Libya, Southern Asia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, highlighting locations where targeted interventions may be most effective. Our approach demonstrates how, with careful consideration of additional data and methodological biases, monitoring social media activity may be used more widely as a means of evaluating the effectiveness of wildlife trade interventions and polices.