Inferring past demographic changes in a critically endangered marine fish after fishery collapse

Abstract

Several worldwide marine fish stocks need to recover from collapse or overexploitation. However, the effects of a fishery collapse at the genetic level are still largely unknown, as is the extent of reduction in genetic diversity caused by fisheries and the consequences for extinction risk. Here we present a case study of totoaba, the first marine fish considered as critically endangered. We assessed 16 microsatellite loci to determine whether the demographic collapse of the species resulted in a loss of genetic diversity. Our data indicate that genetic diversity of totoaba is in the range of values observed for fish with similar biological traits without a documented fishery collapse. Contemporary demographic analysis indicated no loss of genetic diversity. Long-term genealogical analysis showed a substantial reduction in effective population size. However, the time and causal effects for population decline cannot be inferred because of the large uncertainty in estimates. Our results indicate that the totoaba in the Gulf of California has not suffered a measurable contemporary reduction in genetic diversity, and that genetic diversity is driven by long-term climatic events. Estimates of current effective size indicate that it is large enough that genetic factors may not be a major problem for conservation. We conclude that the recent fishery collapse of totoaba did not have sufficient consequences at the genetic level to increase the risk of extinction from genetic drift. However, selective effects of fishing on the adaptive potential in totoaba remain unclear.