Inferring origin and destination zones of transit trips through fusion of smart card transactions, travel surveys, and land-use data

Abstract

This paper presents a data fusion method to infer the origin and destination zones of transit trips from smart card data. The fusion framework has disaggregate mixed multinomial logit models at its core that predict the most probable origin and destination zones of individual transit trips using smart card transaction records, land use data, and transit system characteristics. The logit models are estimated using revealed trip origin and destination responses from a travel survey that are augmented by land use and transit system data to provide contexts about the zones' trip generation and attraction potentials. For empirical analysis, the methodology is applied to the smart card system of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. Specifically, it is tested under different system configurations (tap-on-only and tap-on-and-off) and for networks with substantial shares of automobile and walk access/egress. When applied to transit trips constructed from the smart card transactions, the estimated models successfully capture the spatial distribution of trip origin and destination at the traffic analysis zone level. The empirical analysis also demonstrates that the proposed fusion method can be appropriately used to reconcile information provided by transit smart card and travel surveys to generate up-to-date transit demand data necessary for public transport planning and operations.