Inferences about information flow and dispersal for spatially extended population systems using time-series data

Abstract

This work explores an information-theoretic approach to drawing inferences about coupling of spatially extended ecological populations based solely on time-series of abundances. The efficacy of the approach, time-delayed mutual information, was explored using a spatially extended predator-prey model system in which populations at different patches were coupled via diffusive movement. The approach identified the relative magnitude and direction of information flow resulting from animal movement between populations, the change in information flow as a function of distance separating populations, and the diffusive nature of the information flow. In addition, when the diffusive movement was eliminated from the model, mutual information correctly provided no evidence of information flow, even when population synchrony was generated by a common environmental driving function. Thus, for this model system, time-delayed mutual information was useful in discriminating between the Moran effect and animal movement as causes of population synchrony, as well as in characterizing dispersal in terms of direction, relative speed and diffusive nature.