Abstract
The recent emergence of A(H7N9) avian influenza poses a significant challenge to public health in China and around the world; however, understanding of the transmission dynamics and progression of influenza A(H7N9) infection in domestic poultry, as well as spillover transmission to humans, remains limited. Here, we develop a mathematical model–Bayesian inference system which combines a simple epidemic model and data assimilation method, and use it in conjunction with data on observed human influenza A(H7N9) cases from 19 February 2013 to 19 September 2015 to estimate key epidemiological parameters and to forecast infection in both poultry and humans. Our findings indicate a high outbreak attack rate of 33% among poultry but a low rate of chicken-to-human spillover transmission. In addition, we generated accurate forecasts of the peak timing and magnitude of human influenza A(H7N9) cases. This work demonstrates that transmission dynamics within an avian reservoir can be estimated and that real-time forecast of spillover avian influenza in humans is possible.
Highlights
Wild birds, Anseriformes and Charadriformes, are thought to be the principal natural reservoir of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses [1,2], as well as the source of influenza A viruses infecting all other animals [3]
Transmission to humans occurs primarily at live bird markets (LBMs), where direct contact between humans and infected poultry leads to spillover transmission [9]
Our findings indicate that data assimilation methods and a simple epidemic model can be combined to infer the transmission dynamics of H7N9 influenza in both chicken and human populations using only human infection data
Summary
Anseriformes and Charadriformes, are thought to be the principal natural reservoir of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses [1,2], as well as the source of influenza A viruses infecting all other animals [3]. LPAI includes most influenza subtypes, and wild bird migration can bring viruses to new areas and species [1,4]. The LPAI A(H7N9) virus was first identified in humans in China in early 2013 [5]. The virus most probably originated in wild bird populations [7,8], was introduced into domestic ducks and chickens and has since become well established in poultry populations in south-eastern China [6]. Transmission to humans occurs primarily at live bird markets (LBMs), where direct contact between humans and infected poultry leads to spillover transmission [9]
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Schedule a callMore From: Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin
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