Inequality, poverty and development

Abstract

Dicussion explores the nature of the relationship between the distribution of income and the process of development on the basis of cross country data on income inequality. The results presented are based on a sample of 60 countries, including 40 developing countries, 14 developed countries, and 6 socialist countries. The approach adopted is essentially exploratory. Multivariate regression analysis was used to estimate cross country relationships between the income shares of different percentile groups and selected variables reflecting aspects of the development process which are likely to influence income inequality. The estimated equations are then used as a basis for broad generalizations about the relationship between income distribution and development. There was strong support for the proposition that relative inequaltiy increases substantially in the early stages of development, with a reversal of this tendency in the later stages. The propositions held whether the sample was restricted to developing countries or expanded to include developed and socialist countries. The process was most prolonged for the poorest group. There were a number of processes occurring "pari passu" with development which were correlated with income inequality and which can plausibly be interpreted as causal. These were intersectoral shifts in the structure of production, expansion in education attainment and skill level of the labor force; and reduction in the growth of population. The operation of these processes appeared to explain some of the improvement in income distribution observed in the later stages of development, but they did not serve to explain the marked deterioration observed in the earlier stages. The cross section results failed to support the stronger hypothesis that the deterioration in relative inequality reflected a prolonged absolute impoverishment of large sections of the population in the course of development. The cross country pattern showed average absolute incomes of the lower percentile groups rising as per capita gross national product rises, although slower than for upper income groups. The cross section results failed to support the view that a faster rate of growth is systematically associated with higher inequality than can be expected given the state of development realized. An appendix identifies data sources and problems.