Inequality, macroeconomic performance and political polarization: a panel analysis of 20 advanced democracies

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic and social determinants of voting behavior, and especially of political polarization – defined here as the increasing electoral success of far-right and far-left parties – in 20 advanced countries using annual data from 1970 to 2016 and covering 291 parliamentary elections. Our analysis indicates that the link between income inequality and political polarization appears to have significantly changed over the last 20 years. Indeed, we find that both average net income inequality, as well as the bottom 10% income share are statistically linked to the recent success of far-right parties (but not of far-left parties), while the top 10% or top 20% income shares are not. The link of income inequality and political polarization, and in particular the increasing success of far-right parties, thus seems to be based on the deterioration of the relative economic position especially of the poorest fraction of the population.