Industrial Transformation and Occupational Change in the U.S., 1960-70

Abstract

Increasingly, sociologists concerned with occupational mobility and the changes in the occupational distribution are turning their attention to the structural conditions for such changes. One important change has been industry shifts, particularly the decline of agriculture and the growth of services. In this paper we argue that industry shifts have an important effect on changes in the occupational structure. Using a shift-share approach, changes in the occupational structure of the U.S. between 1960 and 1970 are decomposed into an industry shift effect, an occupational composition effect, and an interaction effect. These effects vary for major occupational categories, but for total U.S. employment the industry shift effect accounted for about two-thirds of the change in occupational structure, the composition effect for one-third, and the interaction effect was negligible. It is not likely that there will be as important shifts in the industry structure during the next 30 years as in the last 30 years. But it has been the industry shifts that have mostly contributed to an expansion of the higher status occupations, particularly professionals and managers. Therefore, unless the occupational composition changes in such a way as to compensate for the diminishing effects of the industry structure, structural opportunities will either remain at current levels or even decline in the years to come.