Industrial energy consumption forecast and carbon emissions accounting for Tianjin “12th Five-Year Plan”

Abstract

Tianjin is in a stage of rapid industrialization, and its demand for energy has been growing steadily. The industrial energy consumption accounts for over 60% of total energy consumption in Tianjin. A retrospective analysis is carried out on Tianjin industrial energy consumption. In 1995-2008, Tianjin's industrial energy intensity declined 7.52% annually, higher than the national average rate of 4.27%. Construct the formula of Tianjin's industrial economy and energy consumption by using the history data in 1999-2009. On this basis, forecast total industrial energy consumption in 2015, and the results show that Tianjin's energy intensity will achieve a decrease of 18% target. Using the calculation method of IPCC, account key industries' carbon emission intensity, and analyze the energy consumption structure to identify the potential energy saving industries. At last, establish industrial carbon emission benchmarks to provide a basis for the implementation of Tianjin "12 <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">th</sup> Five-year Plan" and the industrial carbon reduction decision-making process.