Abstract

The crisis in the world machine tool production industry, which has lasted longer than expected and is characterized by a production decline over several years that amounted to approx. 8.3% in 1991, with production revenue dropping to $41.5 billion, and the still weak order situation in the German machine tool industry in particular are cause for a heated discussion over the situation and prospects of the German machine tool industry. The debate is roughly split into two camps, pessimists and sceptical optimists. The pessimists, particularly the group of “panic-mongers”, refer to the Japanese machine tool industry, its unparalleled production success during the past two decades and a change taking place in the demand structure (in Germany) towards simpler, less complex CNC machine tools, the demand for which is currently being met with growing success by Japanese manufacturers. An indicator of this creeping development is the import/export ratio. The ratio between machine tool imports and exports has continuously worsened for the German machine tool industry since 1984: while the import-export ratio in 1984 amounted to 28%, it worsened to 46% in 1990 with a continuing trend in this direction (VDMA 1991). Thus, although the overall balance is still far from being negative, as has been typical of the U.S. for years now, a weakening of the internal production structure of Germany’s machine tool industry appears to be taking place.

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