Industrial business cycle and the cyclical fluctuations of sold industrial output according to PAC

Abstract

The first aim of the paper is to identify business cycle in the Polish industry and in departments of the industry according to PAC. The second aim is the re-examination of the co-variability between the calculated fluctuations. When identifying the fluctuations, first one has to purify the time-series of incidental and seasonal fluctuations. According to that the time-series underwent adjustment procedure of seasonal correction Census X11. This way Henderson’s curves which reflect trends and seasonal fluctuations at the same time were obtained. The next step was to state the values of trends. To establish these values the method of stochastic trend estimation, which is called Hodrick-Prescott’s filter was used. Dividing empirical values of Henderson’s curves by the implementation arising from a use of HP we get (after multiplying by 100) a series showing percentage deviations form the trend line, which means seasonal fluctuations.The plan of the paper is as follows: introduction, section 1 definition of business cycle and data, section 2 with econometric methodology, section 3 with empirical analysis, and the conclusions.