Inductive Processes, Heuristics, and Biases Modulated by High-Reliability Organizing (HRO) for COVID-19 and Disasters

Abstract

We view and understand the world through our internal logic, both public and private internal logic. The logic of practice differs by the frame of reference – a fixed point or within the flux of events, which can have “cosmology episodes” that collapse sensemaking. We have different perceptions and capabilities from the different reference frames, Eulerian and Lagrangian specificities, Euclidean, and topological spaces. When approaching a situation, all we have is observation, induction, and the capability to learn through action. Because people have limited time and knowledge, they must make inferences from the information they have available. We almost universally use heuristic, subjective approaches for better decision-making for complex, interactive problems and processes. Heuristics work through the nearness of information between the old problem-solution and the new problem, a topological space. In routine operations, we are susceptible to heuristic bias, yet error corrects this heuristic bias counterintuitively. We have found four predominant heuristics that cause consequential bias and interfere with effective decision-making: availability, representativeness, confirmation bias, and over-conservative revision. Motivated reasoning, a fifth bias but not from a heuristic, overly scrutinizes information that conflicts with closely held beliefs. Unless we assume that every word and behavior could instantly be wrong, we can too easily begin treating our treatments.