Induced technological change in moderate and fragmented climate change mitigation regimes

Abstract

Climate change mitigation efforts are currently characterized by a lack of globally coordinated measures and predominantly moderate regional action. This paper compares the results from different Integrated Assessment Models to analyze the impact of such moderate climate change mitigation actions on electricity technology deployment and development, along with the impact of first movers taking stringent unilateral action-specifically, the EU and an EU-plus-China coalition. We find that a fragmented regime with moderate climate and technology targets produces significant emission reductions and changes in the adoption of electricity technologies towards low-carbon alternatives, promoting global technology change. The adoption of more stringent policies by the first movers implies a further transformation of their electricity sectors, but technology deployment outside the coalition is not significantly affected. Furthermore, the results in some models show (1) that first movers can benefit from early action by increased access to low-carbon energy carriers and (2) that delayed action implies the lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies leading to a slower transformation of the electricity sector later.