Induced resistance in host mixtures and its effect on disease control in computer‐simulated epidemics

Abstract

The epidemic simulator EPIMUL was modified and used to study how induced resistance affected the development of epidemics in host mixtures. In the model, induced resistance resulted from the interaction of host tissue with avirulent spores and caused a reduction in the efficacy of virulent spores deposited afterwards. We denned three parameters to describe induced resistance: the level of protection, defined as the magnitude of reduction in the virulent spore efficacy for infecting host tissue; the host surface area protected by an interaction with one avirulent spore; and the duration of protection of the host tissue, in days. In our simulations, induced resistance slowed the epidemics and gave better disease control in the mixtures, even if protection lasted for only 2 days. The disease reduction in the mixture attributable to induced resistance was approximately proportional to the level of protection. The effect of induced resistance increased as the protected area increased. Epidemics were virtually unaffected by induced resistance restricted to the infection site, but the effect of induced resistance initially increased rapidly as larger areas were protected. There was little further gain as the protected area increased from 2·6% to 26%. The influence of induced resistance was reduced when the interactions between virulent and avirulent pathogens were reduced.