Abstract

The semiphysical method is presently the most widely used for predicting litter moisture content, but it produces some errors. These are mainly due to the simplification of the water loss process and not accounting for the fuelbed structure, which can have a serious impact on the accuracy of litter moisture content predictions and, consequently, on forest fire management. As such, in this study, we constructed fuelbeds with different degrees of compactness, and the moisture content is saturated at this time. The drying process is recorded every 10 min under different wind velocity, and the experiment is stopped when the moisture content is not changing. Taking the saturated fibers’ moisture content (30%) as the threshold value, the drying process was artificially divided into two stages (from the initial moisture content to 30%, it is a process of free water drying, and from 30% to the equilibrium moisture content, this is the process of drying of bound water), which is called the distinguishing drying process. The whole drying process (from the initial to the equilibrium moisture content) is called the undistinguishing drying process. Drying coefficient and effect factors were calculated by distinguishing and not distinguishing the drying process, respectively. This established a prediction model based on compactness and wind velocity. The results show that the drying coefficients, k2 and k, of the two litter types were significantly different: the k2 of the white oak fuelbed was significantly lower than its k, with a maximum variation difference of 57.10%. The k2 in the Masson pine fuelbed was significantly higher than its k, with a maximum variation difference of 72.76%. Wind velocity and compactness had significant effects on all the drying coefficients of the two litter types, but with changes in the effect factors. The changes in k2 were weaker than those of the other drying coefficients. Compared with the model that did not distinguish the drying process, the MRE of the prediction models for white oak and Masson pine decreased by 27.39% and 2.35%, respectively. The prediction accuracy of the model of the drying coefficient obtained by distinguishing the drying loss process was higher than that of the model that did not distinguish the drying process. This study was an indoor simulation experiment that elucidated the drying mechanism of litter and established a prediction model for the drying coefficient based on effect factors. It is of great significance for further field verification and for improving the accuracy of moisture content predictions based on the semiphysical method and will significantly improve the accuracy of fire risk and fire behavior prediction.

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