Indonesia's Great-Power Management in the Indo-Pacific: The Balancing Behavior of a "Dove State"

Abstract

executive summary: This essay investigates Indonesia's strategic thinking toward the Indo-Pacific region amid changing great-power politics and examines both the principal drivers shaping Indonesia's strategic choices and the challenges facing Indonesian diplomacy in the region. main argument The Indo-Pacific region, born out of the great powers' efforts to forge new strategic alignments and reset the balance of power in Asia, is headed for a multi-tiered polarization that provides a challenging geostrategic context for Indonesia in the coming years. The U.S. and China form the two poles shaping the global and regional balance of power. Indonesia no longer holds a positive view toward the U.S.-China relationship in the Indo-Pacific region, and this gloomy view has prompted Jakarta to craft a foreign policy that mirrors what some experts refer to as "dove state" behavior. As a dove state, Indonesia has sought to balance its interests while navigating the uncertainties of the great-power rivalry. However, the strength of Indonesian diplomacy is likely to depend on the country's ability to walk a middle path as well as its ability to both keep ASEAN together and position the grouping as a credible regional architecture. policy implications • Indonesia is a status-quo power and is likely to oppose any policy initiative that amplifies the risk of great-power conflict or instability in the region. • As a developing country, a populist democracy, and an emerging market, Indonesia will respond proactively and positively to overtures that advance the country's economic development. • Great-power bellicosity and a weakened ASEAN may push Indonesia to be more insular and concentrate on partnerships that support Jakarta's development agenda.