Indonesia: An Uncertain Outlook

Abstract

?lite politics in Indonesia during 1993 continued to revolve around the linked questions of presidential succession and the President's relationship with the military (Angkatan Bersenjata Republik Indonesia [ABRI] ). There was hardly any doubt that the President would be re-elected at the People's Consultative Assembly (Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat [MPR]) session in March, so atten tion was focused on the vice-presidency. Initially it seemed that ABRI may have forced the President to accept its nominee for the vice-presidency but Soeharto soon made it clear that he remained in charge by appointing a new cabinet and reshuffling the military leadership. Nevertheless, there was much debate and speculation about the President's long-term intentions and the plans of the military. While Soeharto seemed to be promoting a process of civilianization, it appeared that military officers were positioning themselves to play a domi nant role in the post-Soeharto era. The open political atmosphere of the last few years continued, especially in Jakarta, where the press routinely carried items that would not have been tolerated a decade ago. An approach was made to the opposition Petition of 50 group and travel restrictions on them were lifted, Muslim dissidents were released from jail, Muslim student demonstrations forced the closure of a government-sponsored lottery, and the Indonesian Democratic Party (Partai Demokrasi Indonesia [PDI]) was eventually permitted to elect a leader of its choice. But at the same time various political controls remained in force, dissi dent students were detained and put on trial, the establishment of a new trade union federation was obstructed, and on two occasions the government, backed by ABRI, foiled attempts by the PDI to elect a leader. In the three provinces where resistance movements were active, political controls were especially severe.