Individualized physiology-based digital twin model for sports performance prediction: a reinterpretation of the Margaria–Morton model

Abstract

Performance in many racing sports depends on the ability of the athletes to produce and maintain the highest possible work i.e., the highest power for the duration of the race. To model this energy production in an individualized way, an adaptation and a reinterpretation (including a physiological meaning of parameters) of the three-component Margaria–Morton model were performed. The model is applied to the muscles involved in a given task. The introduction of physiological meanings was possible thanks to the measurement of physiological characteristics for a given athlete. A method for creating a digital twin was therefore proposed and applied for national-level cyclists. The twins thus created were validated by comparison with field performance, experimental observations, and literature data. Simulations of record times and 3-minute all-out tests were consistent with experimental data. Considering the literature, the model provided good estimates of the time course of muscle metabolite concentrations (e.g., lactate and phosphocreatine). It also simulated the behavior of oxygen kinetics at exercise onset and during recovery. This methodology has a wide range of applications, including prediction and optimization of the performance of individually modeled athletes.