Individual tree diameter growth modeling system for Dalat pine (Pinus dalatensis Ferré) of the upland mixed tropical forests

Abstract

Pinus dalatensis Ferré (Dalat pine, or five-needle pine, locally) is an endemic large tree species of Vietnam that has both high timber and non-timber values. It is also a rare tree species listed in the Red List of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The objective of this study was to develop an individual tree diameter growth modeling system to facilitate the sustainable management and conservation of this species. We used Haglöf Sweden ® increment borers to collect tree ring samples from a total of 56 trees resulting in a dataset of 4566 diameter at breast height (dbh, cm) measurements at age (t, year) and obtained the associated ecological environmental factors in three different sites in the Central Highlands, Vietnam. A subset of this dataset (n = 1264) also had the climate data collected over the period of past 32–38 years (from 1980 to 2011 and from 1979 to 2016). Weighted mixed-effects models were used to model Dalat pine trees growth and account for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity of the dbh measurements. Cross validation over 200 realizations were used to select the best equation form of dbh growth and incorporate the environmental effects and climatic factors that help improve reliability of the models. Under the mixed-effects modeling paradigm, the Mitscherlich equation fitted with random effects of ecological environmental factors (eco-subregions and altitude) and climatic factors (temperature, humidity, and temperature in dry and in rainy seasons) produced the best results. Whereas, under the fixed-effect modeling paradigm, the models that used the exponential function of environmental or climatic factors as the modifiers of an average diameter growth performed the best (Bias = −5.9% and RMSE = 10.0 cm). The models developed in this study will be useful for forecasting growth and for silvicultural planning under shifting environment and climate and are expected to contribute to the sustainable management of this endemic species.