Abstract

Modern climate change has a strong potential to shift earth systems and biological communities into novel states that have no present-day analog, leaving ecologists with no observational basis to predict the likely biotic effects. Fossil records contain long time-series of past environmental changes outside the range of modern observation, which are vital for predicting future ecological responses, and are capable of (a) providing detailed information on rates of ecological change, (b) illuminating the environmental drivers of those changes, and (c) recording the effects of environmental change on individual physiological rates. Outcrops of Early Miocene Newport Member of the Astoria Formation (Oregon) provide one such time series. This record of benthic foraminiferal and molluscan community change from continental shelf depths spans a past interval environmental change (∼20.3-16.7 mya) during which the region warmed 2.1–4.5°C, surface productivity and benthic organic carbon flux increased, and benthic oxygenation decreased, perhaps driven by intensified upwelling as on the modern Oregon coast. The Newport Member record shows that (a) ecological responses to natural environmental change can be abrupt, (b) productivity can be the primary driver of faunal change during global warming, (c) molluscs had a threshold response to productivity change while foraminifera changed gradually, and (d) changes in bivalve body size and growth rates parallel changes in taxonomic composition at the community level, indicating that, either directly or indirectly through some other biological parameter, the physiological tolerances of species do influence community change. Ecological studies in modern and fossil records that consider multiple ecological levels, environmental parameters, and taxonomic groups can provide critical information for predicting future ecological change and evaluating species vulnerability.

Highlights

  • The fossil record is a key source of data on biotic responses to past and ongoing climate change and its importance to establishing natural baselines of environmental and ecological change are increasingly realized [1,2,3]

  • Changes in community structure and composition are abrupt. For both benthic foraminiferal (n = 58) and molluscan (n = 19) time series, faunal composition changes in steps that are abrupt with respect to the duration of each distinct assemblage or community state (Figure 1)

  • Species diversity and community evenness decrease once at 19.25 Ma, average body size decreases in two steps, and the proportional abundance of subsurface deposit feeders increases in two steps

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Summary

Introduction

The fossil record is a key source of data on biotic responses to past and ongoing climate change and its importance to establishing natural baselines of environmental and ecological change are increasingly realized [1,2,3]. If body size and growth rates decline in species whose abundances decline during an environmental change, we can infer that communitylevel change is driven, at least in part, by mechanisms at the level of individual physiological tolerances.

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