Individual Surgeon's Contribution to Value.

Abstract

Estimating surgeon-level value in health care remains relatively unexplored. American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Participant Use Files (2005-2013) were linked with total costs at a single institution. Random intercepts in 3-level random effects logistic regression models predicted 30-day postoperative mortality or morbidity for each surgeon each year. Value was defined as quality (morbidity or mortality) divided by costs for surgeons performing general surgery and vascular procedures. Forty-four surgeons performed 11 965 surgeries. Risk-adjusted costs trended down over time. For all surgeries, mortality value increased by 3.27 per year (95% confidence interval = 2.54-4.01; P < .001) on a 100-point scale, while morbidity value did not change. Of 21 surgeons with data for 5 years or longer, mortality value increased for all surgeons except one. Continuous increase in complication rates from 2008 contributed to decreased morbidity value. Value may assist surgeons in exploring performance opportunities better than morbidity or mortality alone.