Individual Risk Perception and Flood Mitigation: An Empirical Study of Protective Actions in Australia

Abstract

The Australian government has increasingly expected that individuals collaborate with public efforts to reduce hazard risks by taking some action themselves. This expectation, however, has failed to consider the complexity of the decision-making process at the household level. Individual decision making is rather complex as it involves a wide range of factors that should be taken into account before the government can assess to what extent individuals at risk can effectively contribute to the reduction of hazard risks. This is where a theoretical framework makes a contribution to this thesis by guiding data collection and analysis. Thus this thesis resorts to a comprehensive socio-psychological theory to generate empirical data on the different factors affecting decision making under uncertainty.The testing of this comprehensive theoretical framework called Protection Motivation Theory focuses on the explanatory variables of risk perception (‘threat appraisal’) and coping measures (‘coping appraisal’). Threat appraisal factors have to do with the perception of hazard risks and coping appraisal variables measure the perceived ability of an individual to take action. The novelties of this study are i) the application of this theoretical framework, which has already been tested in order countries, for the first time in Australia, more specifically among householders living in flood-prone locations in Southeast Queensland; ii) a dataset featuring significant variability in terms of vulnerability and exposure levels of the population at risk; iii) the assessment of how heuristics and biases affect decision making under uncertainty; and iv) qualitative data to unpack non-intuitive associations and understand the role that the nature of threats and protective actions play in the decisions of householders to take protective actions.An interesting finding from previous studies is that coping factors are better predictors for protective actions than risk perception. This thesis then will verify whether this association is also observed in the Australian context. However, emerging from this study, is the argument that individuals at risk living in this region make decisions which do factor in their hazard risk perceptions and their perceived capacity to take action; however, this decision-making process also take into account the vulnerability conditions of the population at risk. Also, qualitative data suggest that exposure to hazard risks shaped by the nature of the threat and the characteristics of the protective action also play a role in the decision of householders to take preventive measures that reduce or eliminate flood damage. The findings on how these conditions and circumstances influence decisions made under uncertain scenarios are the main contribution of this thesis to the literature.This contribution, however, is not only relevant within the academic community. If Australian authorities are to enhance the resilience of communities at risk to potential damage caused by hazards, it needs first to have a better sense of how it can motivate these at-risk individuals to take specific actions and what constraints these individuals face to make these decisions. Understanding these challenges in order to gradually reduce the level of vulnerability among communities mostly at risk is a worthwhile starting-point. The provision of information and analysis on what motivates and challenges these individuals to take action is the main objective of this thesis. The expectation is that findings from this study will make officials revisit their past decisions and readjust their assessments and expectations towards individuals taking protective actions.