Individual Patient Data Analysis of 17 Randomized Trials vs. Real-World Data for Men with Localized Prostate Cancer Receiving Radiotherapy.

Abstract

Prior work has demonstrated poor correlation between the results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and real-world evidence (RWD). However, patients enrolled in RCTs are often considered to poorly represent the real-world population. Herein, we utilize multiple large data repositories to determine differences in baseline characteristics and long-term outcomes between patients enrolled in RCTs and RWD that received radiotherapy for localized prostate cancer. Meta-Analysis of Randomized trials in Cancer of the Prostate (MARCAP) Consortium was leveraged, and 17 phase III randomized trials were included. RWD were accessed through the Staging Collaboration for Cancer of the Prostate (STAR-CAP) cohort, a cohort that is comprised of >60 centers across the United States and Europe. Additionally, RWD was assessed via the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. MARCAP and STAR-CAP both contain outcomes for distant metastasis (DM), metastasis-free survival (MFS), prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM), and overall survival (OS). SEER only contains PCSM and OS. Wilcoxon signed-rank test and chi-square test were used to compare continuous and categorical variables, respectively. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis was conducted, balancing for age, PSA, Gleason score, T stage, and treatment year in the three cohorts. Cox and Fine-Gray regression models were used to compare disease outcomes between RCTs vs. RWD. Data from 10,666 patients from RCTs, 6,530 patients in STAR-CAP, and 117,586 patients in SEER were included. SEER patients were slightly younger (p<0.001, median age 68 (IQR 62-73) than those in RCTs (70, IQR 65-74) and in STAR-CAP (70, IQR 64-74). 10-year OS in RCTs was 65.4%, STAR-CAP 70.2%, SEER 64.1%. OS was superior in STAR-CAP (RCTs as reference; HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.85-0.96, p<0.0001), but there was no significant difference between SEER and RCTs (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.91-1.02, p = 0.22). 10-year PCSM cumulative incidence was 7.4% in RCTs, 8.1% in STAR-CAP, and 11.0% in SEER. There was no significant difference in PCSM between STAR-CAP RWD and RCTs (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.78-1.01, p = 0.08), whereas PCSM was worse in SEER than RCTs (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.21-1.55, p<0.0001). There was no significant difference in DM between STAR-CAP RWD and RCTs (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.83-1.04, p = 0.2). While baseline differences exist in patients enrolled on localized prostate cancer RCTs and real-world datasets, there were small if any significant relative differences in oncologic outcomes. This provides reassurance that RCT results are generally applicable to patients in routine practice.