Individual-level models of disease transmission incorporating piecewise spatial risk functions

Abstract

Modelling epidemics is crucial for understanding the emergence, transmission, impact and control of diseases. Spatial individual-level models (ILMs) that account for population heterogeneity are a useful tool, accounting for factors such as location, vaccination status and genetic information.Parametric forms for spatial risk functions, or kernels, are often used, but rely on strong assumptions about underlying transmission mechanisms. Here, we propose a class of non-parametric spatial disease transmission model, fitted within a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework, allowing for more flexible assumptions when estimating the effect on spatial distance and infection risk.We focus upon two specific forms of non-parametric spatial infection kernel: piecewise constant and piecewise linear. Although these are relatively simple forms, we find them to produce results in line with, or superior to, parametric spatial ILMs. The performance of these models is examined using simulated data, including under circumstances of model misspecification, and then applied to data from the UK 2001 foot-and-mouth disease.