Abstract
Though, fertility is a biological phenomenon but it depends heavily on socioeconomic, demographic and cultural factors; therefore, this article describes a regression technique to estimate the TFR under dierent proposed model assumptionsand the effects of socioeconomic and demographic factors on TFR as well. The developed methodology also leads to estimate the number of births averted due to the use of family planning methods and percent of increase in births in the absence of birth control devices for 29 states of India using three different methods of births aversion through the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-III) data. The finding shows that there is a variation in number of births averted and percent of increase in births in the absence of family planning methods at the state level in India. The effective use of contraception and maximum number of births avoided due to use of family planning is in Maharashtra and Uttar pradesh. Highest percent of increase in births in the absence of contraception is in Himachal Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh
Highlights
The process of human reproduction in traditional societies starts with the consummation of marriage and ends with divorce, menopause or death of either spouse
Analytical utility of crude birth rate (CBR) is reduced as it is affected by several factors, the age-sex structure of the population, distributions of married women in the reproductive period and other characteristics of the population.A better picture of fertility can be obtained by examining the total fertility rate (TFR), it is determined as the number of children which a women of hypothetical cohort would bear during her time of reproduction if she were to bear children through out her life at the rates specified by the schedule of age specific fertility rates for the particular year and if none of them dies before crossing the age of reproduction
Since data taken for the estimation of TFR has multicollinearity problem, the ridge regression is applied for analysis, TFR estimation is done by considering weighted average of proportions of different birth orders as a exogenous variable and by using new predictor variable that were used by (Yadava et al 2009 and Singh et al 2012) respectively
Summary
The process of human reproduction in traditional societies starts with the consummation of marriage and ends with divorce, menopause or death of either spouse. The crude birth rate (CBR) is a valuable measure of fertility because it directly indicates the contribution of births to the natural growth rate of the population It is defined as a ratio of the total number of births during a given year to the average (or mid year) population ever lived in the last year. Singh et al (2012) used another new predictor variable for estimation of total fertility rate, which is the combination of proportion of females having open birth interval more than 5 years or more and do not use any contraceptive during last 5 years These predictor variables give quite reliable estimates for TFR but there are a number of factors which affected fertility nega- tively and positively as well such as maternal care, female age at marriage, female literacy rate, human development index, infant mortality rate and birth interval (time between two successive live births) etc. These predictor variables give quite reliable estimates for TFR but there are a number of factors which affected fertility nega- tively and positively as well such as maternal care, female age at marriage, female literacy rate, human development index, infant mortality rate and birth interval (time between two successive live births) etc. which are correlated with TFR.the contribution of these predictors in regression model may yield reliable and valid result
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