Abstract
The Brass-type indirect methods of early-age mortality estimation have been used for more than four decades, providing very robust estimates for countries without reliable vital registration systems. However, when estimation areas become smaller, the number of dead children could be very small, especially among those born to young women, who provide essential information to estimate recent mortality. In these cases, estimates could be affected by random errors and unexpected annual fluctuations. At the same time, although it is very unlikely that demographic trends in a small area would follow patterns very different from those prevailing in the broader environment they belong to, it is possible that some local events may become relevant to small areas, causing some deviations from the assumptions that may hold true to the larger area. The objective of this paper is to propose an adaptation of the indirect estimation approach, which would allow obtaining infant and child mortality estimates for small areas. As such, this proposal belongs to the realm of indirect estimation methods, sharing the limitations and advantages that characterize this type of estimation procedures. The method is illustrated with data from the 2014 Population and Housing Census of Myanmar. The results indicate that the method proposed here provides reliable and consistent infant mortality estimates, compared to the original Brass’ method, even in very small areas.
Highlights
Mortality during childhood has received substantial attention especially in less developed countries, where a considerable number of deaths still occur in early life
Early-age mortality calculation in small areas posits substantial challenges, in less developed countries, where data sources are most frequently restricted to information from population censuses, and estimation methodology consists on William Brass’ indirect methods
This paper addresses indirect estimation methods based on population census data
Summary
Mortality during childhood has received substantial attention especially in less developed countries, where a considerable number of deaths still occur in early life. When sample surveys collect information on vital event histories, estimation methodologies applied to vital statistics can be usefully adapted for these analyses; Mercer et al (2015) developed a very useful application to Tanzanian data, combining information from Demographic and Health Surveys and some surveillance systems; Swanson (2015) and Swanson et al (2019) conducted estimations of infant mortality for small areas (counties in Estonia and counties in California) through statistical modeling approaches based on a Beta Binomial distribution Readers interested in this line of work can find abundant bibliographical references in the work of these authors. The results of the modeling described above are presented in the form of multipliers, tabulated according to fertility and mortality patterns, or through equations based on fertility indicators and model life tables, according to the estimation procedure adopted
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