Abstract
Indirect estimation methodologies of the total fertility rate (TFR) have a long history within demography and have provided important techniques applied demographers can use when data is sparse or lacking. However new methodologies for approximating the total fertility rate have not been proposed in nearly 30 years. This study presents a novel method for indirectly approximating the total fertility rate using an algebraic rearrangement of the general fertility rate (GFR) through the known relationship between GFR and TFR. It then compares the proposed method to the well-known Bogue-Palmore method. These methods are compared in 196 countries and include overall errors as well as characteristics of the countries that contribute to fertility behavior. Additionally, these methods were compared geographically to find any geographical patterns. We find this novel method is not only simpler than the Bogue-Palmore method, requiring fewer data inputs, but also has reduced algebraic and absolute errors when compared with the Bogue-Palmore method and specifically outperforms the Bogue-Palmore method in developing countries. We find that our novel method may be useful estimation procedure for demographers.
Highlights
IntroductionEstimates of population fertility characteristics are of critical importance for understanding short-term shifts in population agestructure and related growth dynamics [1,2,3]
Estimates of population fertility characteristics are of critical importance for understanding short-term shifts in population agestructure and related growth dynamics [1,2,3]. They are utilized in creating important demographic summary indicators such as total fertility rate (TFR), Euler-Lotka growth parameters, reproductive value, and net-reproductive rates [1,2,3,4,5,6]
Overall (Table 2), the Child/Woman Ratio method presented a lower average error (MAPE = 5.71%) than the Bogue-Palmore estimates (MAPE = 9.60%). This suggests an average percentage point improvement of 3.89 points when using the child/woman ratio procedure. While both methods tended to underestimate the UN values for TFR, the Bogue-Palmore method appeared to be less biased on average (MALPE = 0.92%) than the child/woman ratio (MALPE = 1.89%)
Summary
Estimates of population fertility characteristics are of critical importance for understanding short-term shifts in population agestructure and related growth dynamics [1,2,3] They are utilized in creating important demographic summary indicators such as total fertility rate (TFR), Euler-Lotka growth parameters, reproductive value, and net-reproductive rates [1,2,3,4,5,6]. In spite of their obvious importance, enduring challenges associated with the collection of vital data records have often left demographers with a need to estimate these patterns using incomplete data [7,8,9]. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the demographic literature by comparing the performance of a regression-based method for estimating total fertility rate (TFR) based on symptomatic indicators [15,16] to a simpler method requiring only censal age-structures and algebraic rearrangement to convert the child/woman ratio into an estimate of TFR
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