Abstract
Indigenous knowledge of seasonal weather fore- casting could be useful in decision making at village level to best exploit the seasonal distri- bution of rainfall in order to increase or stabilize crop yields. We examined existing indigenous knowledge by interviewing 192 households in six regions of Uganda. Twenty one distinctive indicators were mentioned by local communities for forecasting the start of the dry season, but only few of these indicators were more consis- tently and frequently used in the different dis- tricts. These included the appearance of bush crickets (Ruspolia baileyi Otte), winds blowing from the east to the west, the appearance and movement of migratory birds such as cattle egrets (Bubulcus ibis Linnaeus), and calling by the Bateleur eagle (Terathopius ecaudatus Lesson). For prediction of the start of the rainy season, 22 indicators were mentioned and these included winds blowing from the west to the east, cuckoo birds (Cuculiformes: Cuculidae) start to call, and winged African termite (Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki) swarms leave their nests. Predictors of rain in the following days included presence of red clouds in the morning. Together with the me- teorological forecasts, traditional indicators could be very useful in rain forecasting and improving the timing of agricultural activities.
Highlights
Adverse effects of climate change are threatening to undo decades of development efforts and negatively impact agriculture, health, settlements, and infrastructure in developing countries [1,2,3]
Rainfall variability together with the occurrence of extreme weather events like droughts, floods, and landslides is a reality in Uganda (Table 1) and is threatening livelihoods and ecosystems alike [5,6,7,8,9,10]
Warning systems have proven to be indispensable in preparedness for climatic events like the onset of rainfall, floods, earthquakes, landslides, droughts and related famine, and tsunami [11,12,13,14]
Summary
Adverse effects of climate change are threatening to undo decades of development efforts and negatively impact agriculture, health, settlements, and infrastructure in developing countries [1,2,3]. In addition to the vulnerability of Uganda to rainfall variability and climatic shocks like droughts and floods [6,9], there is lack of timely weather forecasts at local village or district levels. This coupled with high poverty levels, high dependence on rainfed agriculture and the dependence of up to 80% of the population’s livelihood on agriculture leave most smallholders and resource-constrained rural farmers unable to adapt to climate change. This study was undertaken to document local pointers used to forecast the start and end of the rainy and dry seasons over the districts under study
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