Indicators of carbon emission intensity from commercial energy use in India

Abstract

This study tries to analyze the commercial energy consumption evolution patterns in India in terms of primary energy requirements and final energy consumption and their implications for overall carbon intensity of the economy. The relative contribution and impact of different factors such as activity levels, structural changes, energy intensity, fuel mix and fuel quality on the changes in aggregate carbon intensity of the economy has been studied, taking into account coal quality which has declined drastically in the last two decades. The major findings of the study are: firstly, from the 1980s onwards, income effect has been the major determinant of India’s per capita emission increase, although prior to that, energy intensity used to be the most important factor. Secondly, there has been a major shift towards electricity from primary energy carriers in the major energy consuming sectors, and the higher end use-efficiency of electricity has been able to compensate for the high emission coefficient of electricity consumption. Thirdly, emission intensity of thermal power generation shows a substantial decline when the data is controlled for the declining quality of coal used in power generation.