INDICATOR-BASED REPORTING ON URBAN ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS: THE CASE OF AIR POLLUTION

Abstract

ISEE-536 Introduction: An international project has been established to develop a core set of environment and health indicators for Europe based on standardized definitions and methods. A demonstration of the utility of these indicators was provided by their use in the assessment of the changes associated with a tax on petrol and other fuels introduced by the German government on 1 April 1999 as part of its ecological tax reform. Methods: Data on passenger kilometres, fuel consumption, and pollutant emissions by year were obtained from official sources; annual average and daily PM10 data were obtained from 1996 for cities with continuous pollution monitoring. The changes in these indicators associated with the new tax in Germany were estimated: (i) from the difference between the two years before and after the introduction of the tax; and (ii) from the difference between post-taxation data and extrapolations of pre-1999 trends. Attributable gains in life-expectancy were calculated using AirQ 2.1.01 software using life table data for Germany and published exposure-response relationships. Results: Against a previously rising trend, the number of passenger kilometres travelled by car declined from 1999 by approximately 4%; previously static petrol consumption fell by around 6%; and the trend in PM10, though more difficult to interpret, also showed some early evidence of decline of between 0 and 8%. The health impact (central estimate of a gain of 63 years life expectancy per 100,000 in one year) depended on a range of factors whose influence was explored by sensitivity analysis. These factors included: different estimates of change in pollution, the reversibility and time lag of the associated health effects, and the sustainability of changes in vehicle use. Discussion: This is one of very few government policies for which the air pollution-related health benefits have been examined. Although there are evident uncertainties, the estimation of health impacts alongside other parameters provides evidence that is valuable to policy makers.