Indicator-Based Assessment of Resilience and Vulnerability in the Indian Himalayan Region: A Case Study on Socio-Economy under Different Scenarios

Soumya Dasgupta,Ruchi Badola

doi:10.3390/su12176938

Abstract

The Indian Himalayan region is vulnerable to climate change because of its geospatial fragility. The present study gives a framework for the analysis of household and village-level resilience and vulnerability in the Bhagirathi Basin of Indian Western Himalayan region under different climate change scenarios. Villages were selected depending on different biophysical criteria to have a good representation of the study area. Household-level survey using the household economy approach was done in 646 households of 30 villages to collect information on indicators of natural, physical, financial and human capital assets and scores were generated for each category. A cumulative resilience score was obtained for each household and village. Future climate projections on mean annual temperature were also accessed under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 to estimate the change in mean temperature of the studied villages and probable change in agricultural production. The result shows that most of the villages of Tehri Garhwal are clustered in vulnerable classes in comparison to Uttarkashi villages and vulnerability scores of 11 and 8 villages changed under climate shock and future agricultural production change scenarios, respectively. The study has manifold implications on further research and policy implementation under socioeconomic vulnerability in the Himalayan region.

Highlights

Humans and the environment have been closely associated with each other since antiquity
As in the villages of the Indian Himalayan region household and agricultural work are driven mostly by women, it was tried that ratio of male and female respondents be the same
Respondents were grouped in six different age classes from less than 20 to more than 60 years of age and in between 4 classes were of equal age width of 10 years (Figure S1 in supplementary material)

Summary

Introduction

Humans and the environment have been closely associated with each other since antiquity In this symbiotic relationship, humans have tried to adjust themselves with the environment initially, but subsequently molded the environment according to their needs. Is, accentuating the occurrence of extreme climate events throughout the globe [3,4] It has mixed effects on the local changes in cropping pattern, availability of multiple ecosystems services like water supplies, vegetation and forest, biodiversity and system health, modifications in the economy, social and political system [5]. Climate change hazards will increase unprecedentedly to increase the vulnerability of all the people depending on marginalized resources as livelihood and health of most of the human society is influenced by the climatic factors [6,7]. The gap of knowledge on how these stresses will affect the villages and household-level economy and how intense the effect will be, create a critical situation, where at present, policy level intervention cannot be implemented efficiently

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Discussion

Conclusion