Indications of the effects of climate change on the pelagic fishery of Lake Kariba, Zambia–Zimbabwe

Abstract

The pelagic fishery of Lake Kariba comprises the introduced clupeid, Limnothrissa miodon, from Lake Tanganyika. The annual fishery catches grew logistically from 1974, when commercial fishing began. It peaked at 37 000 tonnes (estimated mean sustainable yield = 40 000 tonnes) around 1990 and declined steadily thereafter. A piecewise regression of Limnothrissa catches against time gives a breakpoint around 1987–1988. Regressions of Limnothrissa against air temperature and lake temperature gave breakpoints of 34.8 and 28.7 °C, respectively. Other studies indicate that Lake Kariba has warmed by close to 2 °C, with accompanying changes in thermal stratification. The lake phytoplankton is now dominated by Cyanophyceae, particularly Cylindrospermum raciborskii. The lake zooplankton population has greatly diminished. These data are similar to the results obtained for Lake Tanganyika (Nature 2003; 424, 766–8). In the Lake Tanganyika study, the declining pelagic fishery has been attributed to reduced food availability resulting from a reduced phototrophic zone depth, as well as epilimnion nutrient recharge from reduced mixing. The warming observed in Lake Kariba and its environs is consistent with the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). While the effects of global warming have been observed in large natural lakes, this is the first study in which global warming has affected the ecosystem of a large impoundment.