Indications for a changing electricity demand pattern: The temperature dependence of electricity demand in the Netherlands

Abstract

This study assesses the electricity demand pattern in the relatively temperate climate of the Netherlands (latitude 52°30′N). Daily electricity demand and average temperature during the period from 1970 until 2007 are investigated for possible trends in the temperature dependence of electricity demand. We hypothesize that the increased use of cooling applications has shifted the temperature dependence of electricity demand upwards in summer months. Our results show significant increases in temperature dependence of electricity demand in May, June, September, October and during the summer holidays. During the period studied, temperature dependence in these months has shifted from negative to positive, meaning that a higher temperature now leads to an increased electricity demand in these months, rather than a decreased demand as observed historically. Although electricity demand in countries with moderate summer temperatures such as the Netherlands generally peaks in winter months and shows a minimum in summer months, this trend may signal the development of an additional peak in summer, especially given the expected climatic change. As power generating capacity may be negatively influenced by higher temperatures due to decreasing process cooling possibilities, an increasing electricity demand at higher temperatures may have important consequences for power generation capacity planning and maintenance scheduling.