Indian Security Perspectives in the 1990s

Abstract

For the coming decade, it is imperative that a correct estimate be made for India's security considerations in a changing security environment, and an analysis of the responses that India considers appropriate. The underestimation of a threat would mean an inadequate degree of preparedness, which in turn would mean the erosion of national security in the face of an attack as happened in the case of India's 1962 war with China. On the other hand, an exaggerated estimate of a threat would involve a higher defense preparedness, which would mean countermeasures by an opponent leading to a higher threat environment and, again, the erosion of national security. Sometimes, countermeasures undertaken for safeguarding security become counterproductive. This is what has happened with India's global and regional concerns. India's security considerations are not confined to its immediate neighborhood but span a wider area. Measures undertaken by India to cope with its concerns, coupled with the lifting of many financial constraints, led to the modernization of its armed forces. This has, understandably, led to an increase in threat perceptions among India's smaller neighbors and has created a feeling that India is out to become a regionally dominant minisuperpower. To counter this perceived threat, the smaller nations have developed extraregional links and succumbed to arms proliferation. Like a vicious circle, these latter developments have led to measures from the Indian side for further armed development and a larger threat perception for both India and other South Asian countries.