Indian Ocean Dipole Overrides ENSO’s Influence on Cool Season Rainfall across the Eastern Seaboard of Australia

Abstract

Abstract The strong relationship between eastern Australian winter–spring rainfall and tropical modes of variability such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) does not extend to the heavily populated coastal strip east of the Great Dividing Range in southeast Australia, where correlations between rainfall and Niño-3.4 are insignificant during June–October. The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is found to have a strong influence on zonal wind flow during the winter and spring months, with positive IOD increasing both onshore winds and rainfall over the coastal strip, while decreasing rainfall elsewhere in southeast Australia. The IOD thus opposes the influence of ENSO over the coastal strip, and this is shown to be the primary cause of the breakdown of the ENSO–rainfall relationship in this region.