Indian Fertility Transition

Abstract

Fighting to curb the population growth, India’s reduction in fertility rate (58%) in 35 years is evident; total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 5.2 to 2.2 meaning three children less. According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4), 2015–2016, TFR has dropped to 2.18 from 3.39 in 1992 (NFHS-1). Proximate determinants indicate that over a period, index of marriage and contraception contribute lesser towards fertility, and postpartum amenorrhoea shows marginal variation. When total fecundity remains constant, share of abortion does not remain one but contribute towards fertility reduction. Benefits of fertility decline include lowering population growth and its positive effects on overall development. As fertility declines, maternal mortality declines; maternal mortality ratio (MRR) declined by 67 per cent in past 13 years. Sharp decline in fertility gives rise to demographic dividend. India is passing through it. Fertility drop is not without consequences. Fertility decline makes pregnancies precious; giving rise to upswing to C-section deliveries and hysterectomy even for a minor cause or is it a response to cancer threat? Preference for sons is universal here. With fertility reduction, it surfaces with unruly consequences of missing girls. Drop in fertility has changed the shape of the population pyramid. Share of elderly is reaching 10 per cent, of which share of women and more so share of oldest women is more. In the absence of social security and low rates of workforce participation, women are getting more dependent on the required care, increasing their vulnerability. Fertility reduction has achieved with moderate level of development. Now the right response to effects of fertility decline is the biggest social challenge.