Abstract
In a warming world, species distribution models have become a useful tool for predicting plausible shifts of a species occurrence enforced by climate change. Using maximum entropy (Maxent) model, we analysed present and future distribution patterns of rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis ) in two distinct bio-geographical regions of India: the Western Ghats having a good distribution of rubber plantations at present and the Brahmaputra valley, where rubber trees are recently being cultivated. The model-derived suitable regions of the Western Ghats and Brahmaputra valley provided good conformity with a satellite-derived rubber plantation distribution map. Annual range of temperature and mean temperature in the coldest months, temperature seasonality and rainfall in the warmest quarter would be the major decisive variables in the distribution of this species as revealed by the area under receiver operating curve. Interestingly, we predict that more areas will become suitable for rubber cultivation by the middle of the 21st century in the Brahmaputra valley, while some areas under current cultivation may become partially unsuitable for this species in the Western Ghats. This result can help planners in deriving a comprehensive rubber plantation policy for India considering the existing land-use scenarios.
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