Abstract
This paper considers options for a future Indian power economy in which renewables, wind and solar, could meet 80% of anticipated 2040 power demand supplanting the country’s current reliance on coal. Using a cost optimization model, here we show that renewables could provide a source of power cheaper or at least competitive with what could be supplied using fossil-based alternatives. The ancillary advantage would be a significant reduction in India’s future power sector related emissions of CO2. Using a model in which prices for wind turbines and solar PV systems are assumed to continue their current decreasing trend, we conclude that an investment in renewables at a level consistent with meeting 80% of projected 2040 power demand could result in a reduction of 85% in emissions of CO2 relative to what might be expected if the power sector were to continue its current coal dominated trajectory.
Highlights
This paper considers options for a future Indian power economy in which renewables, wind and solar, could meet 80% of anticipated 2040 power demand supplanting the country’s current reliance on coal
The capacity factor (CF) is defined as the fraction of power generated by a particular facility relative to its nameplate potential
Incorporating hourly power demand data for five regional grids, high resolution assessments of wind and solar resources, and information for all existing and planned thermal units in India, the analysis indicates that investments in wind and solar could provide a cost competitive alternative to what could otherwise develop as a coal dominated future for India’s power system while contributing at the same time to a reduction of as much as 80% in emissions of CO2
Summary
This paper considers options for a future Indian power economy in which renewables, wind and solar, could meet 80% of anticipated 2040 power demand supplanting the country’s current reliance on coal. NITI Aayog (a policy think tank for the Indian government) set a target of 175 GW of renewable capacity for 2022, 160 GW of which would be in the form of either wind or solar[2] Following these considerations, assessing feasible renewable pathways to decarbonize India’s energy sector offers an important and urgent challenge. This paper represents for the first time an integrated view of all components of India’s electricity system involving wind, solar, hydro, coal, gas, storage, and interregional transmission to meet power demand on hourly basis. We introduce an integrated renewable energy system planning model designed to co-optimize investments for generation, transmission and storage expansion with detailed treatment of system operations considering requirements for balancing supply and demand, and hourly ramping, reserves, minimal load, and timing involved in start-up and shut down of thermal units. To accelerate the optimization process, our previously developed Fast Unit Commitment model[15] is applied to reduce the computational complexity for operational simulation
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