India’s Evolving Policy Contours towards Post-2014 Afghanistan

Abstract

Much speculation abounds on India’s evolving policy towards post-2014 Afghanistan. While India’s aid-only policy in post-2001 Afghanistan has been criticized for piggy backing on the US military efforts, it has generated domestic debate, given the vulnerabilities its projects and personnel face in Afghanistan. The debate is bound to grow more intense as Afghanistan prepares for the inteqal (transition), and many countries including India need to indulge in tactical policy manoeuvring and readjustment in the light of the receding international military footprint by 2014. As the hasty announcements of withdrawal, largely perceived as exit by the Afghans and the regional powers, is pushing the country yet again to the maxims of uncertainty, New Delhi will have to prepare itself for a host of scenarios that may befall on the war-torn country after 2014. With Western countries heading for egress, can India consolidate or build on its decade-long gains through bilateral, institutional and regional cooperation beyond 2014. In the transformational decade (2014–2024), its policy markers in Afghanistan, however, has to navigate through the potentially challenging options of securing its own strategic, security and economic interests, averting a civil war or takeover by extremist forces in Afghanistan, balancing its ties with the difficult neighbours and preventing great power competition in the region.