India's Energy and Emissions Future: A Synthesis of Recent Scenarios

Abstract

Global perceptions of India’s climate and energy future have changed rapidly. From a concern that Indian energy needs could jeopardise climate futures, India is increasingly seen as a forerunner of a low carbon future. This Perspective synthesizes scenario studies to more accurately delineate India’s future energy and carbon trajectory and explores the conditions that will shape alternative futures. We conclude that, based on current policies, a doubling of India’s CO2 emissions by 2030 from 2012 levels is a likely upper bound, and that this trajectory is consistent with meeting India’s Paris emissions intensity pledge. Policy scenarios suggest scope for reduced emissions growth, but this scope is more limited in national development-based scenarios than pure decarbonisation scenarios. Conditions that will drive future emissions include the energy-intensive nature of India’s future job creation, the ability to lock-in energy efficient measures, and the sustainability of recent renewable energy price trends.