Independents in local politics – voter turnout, competitiveness, and party-system effects

Abstract

ABSTRACT Denationalisation and the rise of independent lists are strong trends in the local politics of many European countries, but little is known about their implications. Using the example of Czechia, we examine several effects of this trend, focussing on two questions: 1) What impact does the growing number of independents have on voter turnout? 2) How does this trend affect competitiveness and the party system? Using data on electoral results in Czech municipalities over two consecutive elections, we document mobilisation effects based on the presence of independents. The strongest mobilisation occurred in municipalities in which both types of lists – party-related and independent – were well represented. The study revealed a self-reinforcing mechanism related to the success of independents. In municipalities with many independent councillors, the percentage of party-affiliated candidates decreased in subsequent elections, opening up further opportunities for independents. A side effect of this mechanism is a reduction in electoral competitiveness.