Indefinite-multiple model of risk management during freight transportation

Abstract

Problem. Increasing efficiency of the transport process is a guarantee for the Ukrainian carriers to enter the international transport network. Researches of freight traffic forecast are of great importance. Today, there are practically no methods for generalized estimation of a considerable number of factors that influence the efficiency of cargoes delivery. Goal. The urgent task is to analyze the risks that arise in the managerial decision making process in case of the absence or lack of information about the transportation conditions. Methodology. Methods of risk assessment are divided into quantitative and qualitative: quantitative analysis allows to determine the size of individual risks and the transportation risk in general, qualitative – to determine the potential risk areas and to evaluate risk factors qualitatively. While planning international road routes for risk analysis, it is proposed to apply fuzzy logic methods using linguistic variables, since most managerial decisions are taken on condition that the effects of possible actions are formed on the basis of subjective information from drivers. It is established that in the mentality of a human-expert (in our case, the carrier), not numbers, but images and words are used. The risk assessment uses a linguistic variable which term set contains words composition with the help of which evaluations are described in a natural way and may have such elements that would allow experts to assess the risk having available information. Results. For the risk analysis, there was developed an algorithm of the fuzzy theory apparatus application. The procedure of the assessment aggregation of risks criteria and estimations of criteria weight that are represented besides the procedure of their valuation is carried out. The model of complex decision risk estimation is offered. Originality. It allows determining the areas of the parameters changing that would provide an acceptable risk level at the stage of route planning. Practical value. This enables developers of the transportation plan to choose the most attractive option from the set of available ones.