Incumbent Failure and Partisan Strength: An Explanation of the Emergence and Support of Major Third Party Presidential Candidates in the United States

Abstract

A strong disapproval among the electorate of both major party challengers is one common explanation for the periodic emergence of major third party presidential candidates in the United States. Simply put, if neither candidate is acceptable, then another candidate will find support among a large portion of the voters. However, this is not necessarily the case. Because modern third party candidates are political entrepreneurs, these candidates will look for fragmentation in the party coalitions and exploit them. Using data from the American National Elections Study, this article will disaggregate the data on feelings about the two major party candidates and who supports them. In doing so, it finds third party candidates tend to emerge when the incumbent president is politically weak and unpopular among both the nation as a whole and their party in particular, regardless of the standing of the other major party challenger. It also finds the idea that people turn to third party candidates after rejecting the two major party candidates is incorrect. Rather, people turn to a third party candidate only if they are disaffected with their party’s nominee. Voters who are unsatisfied with their own party’s candidate would rather look for another alternative and support a third party candidate than vote for the opposition party. This indicates partisanship among the electorate has been stronger since 1968 then previously believed.