Incubators of Terror: Do Failed and Failing States Promote Transnational Terrorism?

Abstract

A growing body of scholars and policymakers have raised concerns that failed and failing states pose a danger to international security because they produce conditions under which transnational terrorist groups can thrive. This study devises an empirical test of this proposition, along with counter-theories, using simple descriptive statistics and a timeseries, cross-national negative binomial analysis of 197 countries from 1973 to 2003. It finds that states plagued by chronic state failures are statistically more likely to host terrorist groups that commit transnational attacks, have their nationals commit transnational attacks, and are more likely to be targeted by transnational terrorists themselves. Addressing the problem of failed and failing states will undoubtedly yield significant security and humanitarian dividends for the international system. Is a reduction in transnational terrorism one of them? United States policymakers regard failed and failing states such as Afghanistan, Somalia, and Sudan to be festering incubators of terrorism, and lament that for too long United States foreign policy has ignored the threat that these types of states pose to the international order and to national security. Post September 11th national security documents explicitly describe failed states as, ‘‘…safe havens for terrorists’’ (National Security Council 2006, 15), while Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice proclaims, ‘‘Today…the greatest threats to our security are defined more by the dynamics within weak and failing states than by the borders between strong and aggressive