Increasing vapor pressure deficit accelerates land drying

Abstract

Increase Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD) imposes higher atmospheric demand on land evaporation in the warming climate. However, it remains uncertain that how the increasing evaporative stress may enhance the global pattern of land drying. Here, we have used self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) based on outputs from 20 CMIP6 models to study the contribution of VPD, precipitation and other climatic factors to scPDSI changes globally. Global land drying and wetting are found to be regionally dependent, with statistically significant enhancement of drying and wetting under SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 pathways (2015–2100) compared to the historical period (1961–2014). Increasing precipitation is the main reason of land wetting, while the land drying is initially associated with precipitation deficit, it is partly dominated by the increasing VPD over 20 ∼ 27% of the global land, where the estimated VPD contribution is nearly 6 times of that of precipitation under high forcing pathways. Elevated CO2 concentration is suggested to partly mitigate land drying by altering vegetation physiology; however, this mitigation is quantified to be limited. Our findings highlight the key role of VPD in accelerating global pattern of land drying and its increasing dominance in the warming climate.